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Juwan Johnson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+405/-874).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +440 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +405.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run among all games this week at 134.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.Opposing offenses have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season: most in the league.Juwan Johnson has been an integral part of his team's pass game near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 12.5% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 76th percentile among tight ends.Juwan Johnson has accounted for a monstrous 8.9% of his team's air yards since the start of last season: 83rd percentile among TEs.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The New Orleans Saints have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 60.6 plays per game.Juwan Johnson's possession skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 63.2% to 38.0%.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties profile as the 4th-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on just 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.The New Orleans Saints have gone for it on 4th down a lowly 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.
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