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Justin Watson

Justin Watson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans

Justin Watson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+800/-2250).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +1150 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +800.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

With a 33.3% rate of passing the ball near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year, the 4th-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL in this setting has been the Houston Texans.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projection model to see 129.0 plays on offense called: the 4th-most on the slate this week.

The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, enticing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (34.8 per game) since the start of last season.

The Jaguars defense has yielded the 8th-most receiving TDs in football to WRs: 1.05 per game since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Nick Caley, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 4.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).

The Houston Texans have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to lead to lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing offense performance when facing windier conditions in this week's game.

The Texans O-line grades out as the 6th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative influence on all air attack stats across the board.

Opposing teams have rushed for the 10th-most TDs in the league (1.05 per game) against the Jaguars defense since the start of last season.

As it relates to linebackers in covering receivers, Jacksonville's LB corps has been excellent since the start of last season, projecting as the 2nd-best in the league.

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