My Account Log Out

reorder

Justin Watson

Justin Watson Receptions
Player Prop Week 2

Houston Texans vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Justin Watson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+130/-141).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -161 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -141.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Texans are forecasted by our trusted projection set to call 65.2 offensive plays in this game: the 5th-highest number among all teams this week.

The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the most passes in the NFL (38.3 per game) since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans offensive approach to lean 5.1% more towards the ground game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Nick Caley now calling the plays.

The predictive model expects the Houston Texans as the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 56.7% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

Justin Watson has been been lightly used his team's passing attack, earning a Target Share of just 5.5% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 21st percentile among wideouts.

The Houston offensive line ranks as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful influence on all pass attack stats across the board.

Justin Watson comes in as one of the worst pass-catching wide receivers since the start of last season, averaging a measly 1.5 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 21st percentile among wide receivers.

More Justin Watson Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™