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Justin Watson

Justin Watson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 2

Houston Texans vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Justin Watson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-114/-112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -114.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Texans are forecasted by our trusted projection set to call 65.2 offensive plays in this game: the 5th-highest number among all teams this week.

The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the most passes in the NFL (38.3 per game) since the start of last season.

Justin Watson is positioned as one of the most efficient receivers in the league, averaging an impressive 9.79 adjusted yards-per-target since the start of last season while checking in at the 84th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans offensive approach to lean 5.1% more towards the ground game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Nick Caley now calling the plays.

The predictive model expects the Houston Texans as the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 56.7% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

Justin Watson has been been lightly used his team's passing attack, earning a Target Share of just 5.5% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 21st percentile among wideouts.

The Houston offensive line ranks as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful influence on all pass attack stats across the board.

With a feeble 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (0th percentile) since the start of last season, Justin Watson stands among the best wide receivers in the NFL in football in the open field.

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