Justin Watson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Justin Watson

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 9, 2024

Updated Nov 5, 2024 1:01 AM EST

Analysis

Justin Watson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Buccaneers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 4th-most passes in football (38.6 per game) this year.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
Justin Watson's 83.6% Adjusted Catch% this season shows a meaningful boost in his receiving prowess over last season's 52.7% rate.
Justin Watson's 11.6 adjusted yards per target this year marks a remarkable gain in his receiving proficiency over last year's 8.9 figure.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a huge 8.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs as the least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 56.9% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
After averaging 65.0 air yards per game last year, Justin Watson has produced significantly fewer this year, currently sitting at 16.0 per game.
Justin Watson's 15.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 34.7.
The Buccaneers pass defense has displayed good efficiency against wideouts this year, conceding 7.38 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-fewest in football.