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Justin Watson

Justin Watson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 5

Kansas City Chiefs vs New Orleans Saints

Justin Watson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-120/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 24.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 27.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-oriented team in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 66.7% pass rate.

The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

Opposing QBs have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Saints defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.

The leading projections forecast Justin Watson to be a much bigger part of his team's passing attack this week (12.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (7.3% in games he has played).

In regards to pass protection (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the O-line of the Kansas City Chiefs profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread implies an extreme rushing game script for the Chiefs, who are a heavy favorite by 8 points.

The model projects this game to have the smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 124.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Chiefs this year (a mere 54.0 per game on average).

Justin Watson has accumulated quite a few less air yards this season (22.0 per game) than he did last season (65.0 per game).

Justin Watson rates as one of the worst possession receivers in the league, completing a mere 55.9% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, grading out in the 10th percentile among wide receivers

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