Justin Watson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

NFL · Player Props

Justin Watson

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Watson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-104/-127).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 65.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 136.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line has afforded their quarterback 2.60 seconds before getting pressured (best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.6 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
Justin Watson has run a route on 16.4% of his team's dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 17th percentile among wideouts.
Justin Watson has been among the bottom wide receivers in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 10.0 yards per game while grading out in the 14th percentile among WRs.
The Buffalo Bills defense has conceded the 9th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 142.0) vs. wide receivers this year.