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Justin Watson

Justin Watson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 11

Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs

Justin Watson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 3rd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 66.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 136.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Justin Watson to be much more involved in his team's passing attack this week (9.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (4.2% in games he has played).

The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has conceded the 6th-highest Completion% in football (69.5%) to wide receivers this year (69.5%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chiefs are a massive 9.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.

Opposing teams have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 9th-least in football.

Justin Watson has been among the worst pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging a lowly 13.0 yards per game while checking in at the 12th percentile among WRs.

Justin Watson has been among the least sure-handed receivers in football, completing just 51.3% of passes thrown his way this year, ranking in the 20th percentile among wide receivers

The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.31 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in the NFL.

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