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Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 5

Cleveland Browns vs Minnesota Vikings

Justin Jefferson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+186/-230).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -240 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -230.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Minnesota Vikings will be rolling out backup QB Carson Wentz in this week's contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.

The projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-focused offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.6% red zone pass rate.

The leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 10th-fastest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 27.81 seconds per snap.

The leading projections forecast Justin Jefferson to be a more integral piece of his team's passing game near the goal line in this game (29.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (20.0% in games he has played).

Justin Jefferson places in the 97th percentile when it comes to WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive usage) with a remarkable 73.0 mark this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread implies a running game script for the Vikings, who are favored by 3.5 points.

Opposing teams have averaged 27.0 pass attempts per game against the Browns defense this year: fewest in the league.

After accumulating 104.0 air yards per game last year, Justin Jefferson has undergone a big decline this year, now boasting 89.0 per game.

The Browns safeties project as the best collection of safeties in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.

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