My Account Log Out

reorder

Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Minnesota Vikings

Justin Jefferson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+152/-196).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +160 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +152.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Vikings will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Carson Wentz in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.

Our trusted projections expect the Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented team in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 61.1% red zone pass rate.

Our trusted projections expect the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in football (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.63 seconds per snap.

Justin Jefferson has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 27.3% this year, which ranks him in the 90th percentile among wideouts.

Justin Jefferson has notched a massive 99.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 97th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 56.1% of their plays: the 11th-lowest rate among all teams this week.

The Minnesota Vikings have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should result in reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack results when facing windier conditions in this game.

Justin Jefferson's 59.3% Adjusted Catch Rate this season signifies a noteable decrease in his pass-catching talent over last season's 68.4% rate.

Since the start of last season, the strong Steelers defense has allowed a meager 0.85 TDs through the air per game to opposing wideouts: the 3rd-lowest rate in football.

More Justin Jefferson Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™