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Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

Minnesota Vikings vs Cincinnati Bengals

Justin Jefferson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+120/-152).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +160 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Vikings will be forced to start backup quarterback Carson Wentz in this week's contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.

Our trusted projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to be the 4th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 60.9% red zone pass rate.

The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may suffer.

Opposing teams have averaged 34.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Bengals defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in football.

Justin Jefferson has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 31.1% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 97th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A rushing game script is implied by the Vikings being a 3-point favorite in this week's game.

The leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings to be the 3rd-slowest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 29.13 seconds per play.

Justin Jefferson's 55.6% Adjusted Catch% this year illustrates a substantial regression in his receiving skills over last year's 68.4% mark.

The Bengals pass defense has allowed the 10th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (63.7%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (63.7%).

The opposing side have rushed for the 9th-most TDs in the league (1.11 per game) vs. the Bengals defense since the start of last season.

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