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Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions

 
 
 
Justin Jefferson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+174/-180).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -230 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -180.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game's spread suggests a throwing game script for the Vikings, who are -6-point underdogs.
  • Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 63.2% of their downs: the 2nd-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
  • Right now, the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL in the red zone (63.8% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Vikings.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • With an exceptional 24.1% Red Zone Target% (91st percentile) this year, Justin Jefferson ranks as one of the WRs with the highest volume near the end zone in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Minnesota Vikings are anticipated by the predictive model to run just 63.2 plays on offense in this game: the 8th-fewest among all teams this week.
  • The smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Minnesota Vikings this year (a lowly 51.2 per game on average).
  • Justin Jefferson has totaled significantly fewer air yards this season (89.0 per game) than he did last season (104.0 per game).
  • Justin Jefferson's 56.9% Adjusted Completion Rate this year indicates a significant decrease in his receiving prowess over last year's 68.4% figure.
  • Opposing teams have completed passes at the 5th-lowest clip in football vs. the Lions defense this year (66.2% Adjusted Completion%).

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