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Justin Jefferson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16

New York Giants vs Minnesota Vikings

Justin Jefferson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+144/-166).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -166.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the moment, the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in football near the goal line (63.8% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Minnesota Vikings.

With an impressive 23.6% Red Zone Target Share (90th percentile) this year, Justin Jefferson has been as one of the wideouts with the most usage near the goal line in football.

Justin Jefferson's 72.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) ranks among the best in the NFL: 97th percentile for wide receivers.

This year, the shaky New York Giants defense has given up a whopping 1.07 receiving TDs per game to opposing wide receivers: the 7th-highest rate in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Vikings to pass on 54.4% of their plays: the 8th-lowest rate among all teams this week.

The projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to be the 4th-slowest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 29.35 seconds per snap.

The weatherman calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

Justin Jefferson has put up significantly fewer air yards this year (91.0 per game) than he did last year (104.0 per game).

Justin Jefferson's 55.7% Adjusted Completion% this year shows a remarkable diminishment in his pass-catching ability over last year's 68.4% mark.

More Justin Jefferson Player Props

Justin Jefferson TouchdownsPlayer Prop Week 16

New York Giants vs Minnesota Vikings

Justin Jefferson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16