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Justin Jefferson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 14

Minnesota Vikings vs Washington Commanders

Justin Jefferson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+170/-200).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -205 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -200.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects the Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 64.6% red zone pass rate.

The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.

The model projects Justin Jefferson to be much more involved in his team's passing offense near the goal line in this week's contest (27.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (20.5% in games he has played).

Justin Jefferson places in the 97th percentile for wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive usage) with a remarkable 74.5 figure this year.

This year, the shaky Commanders pass defense has yielded a staggering 69.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the 5th-largest rate in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Vikings are expected by the projection model to run only 63.2 plays on offense in this game: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week.

The Vikings have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 51.4 plays per game.

After accruing 104.0 air yards per game last year, Justin Jefferson has posted significant losses this year, currently pacing 95.0 per game.

Justin Jefferson's 58.7% Adjusted Completion% this season conveys a remarkable decline in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 68.4% figure.

More Justin Jefferson Player Props

Justin Jefferson TouchdownsPlayer Prop Week 14

Minnesota Vikings vs Washington Commanders

Justin Jefferson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 14