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Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears

 
 
 
Justin Jefferson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+113/-127).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -138 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -127.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Vikings to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 59.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • The predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings to be the most pass-heavy offense in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 64.8% red zone pass rate.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to see 131.8 offensive plays called: the 4th-highest number out of all the games this week.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • While Justin Jefferson has earned 23.7% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a more integral piece of Minnesota's passing offense near the end zone in this week's game at 30.7%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
  • The 9th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Minnesota Vikings this year (a measly 53.4 per game on average).
  • Justin Jefferson's ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 68.4% to 60.7%.

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