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Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson Receptions
Player Prop Week 9

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
Justin Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+101/-126).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ +109 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +101.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Vikings being a heavy -9.5-point underdog this week.
  • The projections expect the Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • With a top-tier 97.2% Route Participation% (99th percentile) this year, Justin Jefferson stands as one of the WRs with the biggest workloads in football.
  • In this week's contest, Justin Jefferson is forecasted by our trusted projection set to rank in the 98th percentile among wide receivers with 10.7 targets.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Vikings are predicted by the model to run just 62.2 total plays in this game: the 5th-fewest among all teams this week.
  • The 10th-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Vikings this year (a measly 53.3 per game on average).
  • Justin Jefferson's 64.8% Adjusted Completion% this year reflects an impressive reduction in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 68.4% figure.
  • The Detroit Lions pass defense has allowed the 10th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (61.9%) vs. wide receivers this year (61.9%).
  • The Detroit Lions safeties profile as the 3rd-best group of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.

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