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Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson Receptions
Player Prop Week 8

Los Angeles Chargers vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
Justin Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-185/+135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -140 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -185.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Vikings will be rolling out backup QB Carson Wentz in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
  • A passing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -3-point underdog in this week's game.
  • The predictive model expects the Vikings to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • Justin Jefferson has run a route on 98.6% of his team's dropbacks this year, putting him in the 100th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Minnesota Vikings are expected by the model to run just 63.1 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-lowest number on the slate this week.
  • Justin Jefferson's 4.8 adjusted receptions per game this year illustrates a remarkable regression in his receiving talent over last year's 6.0 rate.
  • Justin Jefferson's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 68.4% to 65.2%.
  • The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has yielded the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (60.4%) to WRs this year (60.4%).
  • As it relates to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Los Angeles's unit has been very good this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

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