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Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson Receptions
Player Prop Week 7

Minnesota Vikings vs Philadelphia Eagles

 
 
 
Justin Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-158/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -132 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -158.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Minnesota Vikings will be rolling out backup quarterback Carson Wentz in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
  • Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 62.7% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
  • The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.
  • Our trusted projections expect Justin Jefferson to garner 10.4 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 98th percentile when it comes to WRs.
  • Justin Jefferson places in the 99th percentile when it comes to wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive usage) with a staggering 78.0 mark this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Vikings are expected by the predictive model to run only 62.7 offensive plays in this contest: the 7th-lowest number on the slate this week.
  • The Vikings have called the 4th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 52.8 plays per game.
  • Justin Jefferson's receiving talent has diminished this year, totaling a measly 4.8 adjusted receptions compared to 6.0 last year.
  • This year, the daunting Philadelphia Eagles defense has conceded a meager 60.6% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 5th-lowest rate in football.

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