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Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Minnesota Vikings

Justin Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-109/+103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -121 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -109.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Vikings will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Carson Wentz in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.

Our trusted projections expect the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in football (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.63 seconds per snap.

Justin Jefferson has run a route on 98.5% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, putting him in the 100th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

In this week's contest, Justin Jefferson is predicted by the model to slot into the 95th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 9.5 targets.

As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, Pittsburgh's collection of LBs has been lousy since the start of last season, profiling as the worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 56.1% of their plays: the 11th-lowest rate among all teams this week.

The Minnesota Vikings have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should result in reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack results when facing windier conditions in this game.

Justin Jefferson's 3.0 adjusted receptions per game this year indicates a remarkable decrease in his receiving prowess over last year's 6.0 figure.

Justin Jefferson's 59.3% Adjusted Catch Rate this season signifies a noteable decrease in his pass-catching talent over last season's 68.4% rate.

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