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Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson Receptions
Player Prop Week 3

Minnesota Vikings vs Cincinnati Bengals

Justin Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-105/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ +105 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Vikings will be forced to start backup quarterback Carson Wentz in this week's contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.

The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may suffer.

Opposing teams have averaged 34.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Bengals defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in football.

With a remarkable 99.2% Route Participation% (100th percentile) since the start of last season, Justin Jefferson ranks among the wideouts with the highest volume in the NFL.

In this contest, Justin Jefferson is anticipated by the projection model to find himself in the 99th percentile among wide receivers with 10.7 targets.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A rushing game script is implied by the Vikings being a 3-point favorite in this week's game.

With a 58.8% rate of throwing the ball (adjusted for context) this year, the 7th-least pass-oriented offense in the league has been the Minnesota Vikings.

The leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings to be the 3rd-slowest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 29.13 seconds per play.

Justin Jefferson's 55.6% Adjusted Catch% this year illustrates a substantial regression in his receiving skills over last year's 68.4% mark.

The Bengals pass defense has allowed the 10th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (63.7%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (63.7%).

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