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Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson Receptions
Player Prop Week 14

Minnesota Vikings vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Justin Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+140/-185).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -185.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.
  • Justin Jefferson has run a route on 97.6% of his team's passing plays this year, ranking him in the 99th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • In this week's contest, Justin Jefferson is expected by the model to land in the 96th percentile when it comes to WRs with 10.1 targets.
  • This year, the shaky Commanders pass defense has yielded a staggering 69.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the 5th-largest rate in the league.
  • When it comes to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Washington's collection of CBs has been lousy this year, grading out as the 2nd-worst in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Vikings are expected by the projection model to run only 63.2 plays on offense in this game: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week.
  • The Vikings have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 51.4 plays per game.
  • Justin Jefferson's 4.7 adjusted receptions per game this year marks a noteable regression in his receiving ability over last year's 6.0 mark.
  • Justin Jefferson's 58.7% Adjusted Completion% this season conveys a remarkable decline in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 68.4% figure.

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