My Account Log Out
 
 
Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears

 
 
 
Justin Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -115.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 6th-most pass-focused offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 62.8% pass rate.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to see 131.9 offensive plays called: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • Justin Jefferson has run a route on 96.8% of his team's passing plays this year, placing him in the 99th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • In this game, Justin Jefferson is projected by our trusted projection set to finish in the 99th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 11.2 targets.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
  • The 9th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Minnesota Vikings this year (a measly 53.4 per game on average).
  • Justin Jefferson's ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 68.4% to 60.7%.

  •  
     
     
     
     
    © 2025 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™