My Account Log Out
 
 
Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears

 
 
 
Justin Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-110/-118).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -110.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Vikings to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 59.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to see 131.8 offensive plays called: the 4th-highest number out of all the games this week.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • Justin Jefferson has run a route on 96.8% of his team's passing plays this year, placing him in the 99th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • In this game, Justin Jefferson is projected by our trusted projection set to finish in the 98th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 11.0 targets.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
  • The 9th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Minnesota Vikings this year (a measly 53.4 per game on average).
  • Justin Jefferson's ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 68.4% to 60.7%.

  •  
     
     
     
     
    © 2025 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™