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Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson Receptions
Player Prop Week 10

Minnesota Vikings vs Baltimore Ravens

 
 
 
Justin Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+135/-180).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -180.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This week's spread suggests a throwing game script for the Vikings, who are -4.5-point underdogs.
  • Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Vikings to pass on 62.2% of their plays: the 2nd-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 40.1 pass attempts per game against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
  • Justin Jefferson has run a route on 96.8% of his offense's passing plays this year, placing him in the 99th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The projections expect the Vikings to be the 3rd-slowest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 29.50 seconds per play.
  • Justin Jefferson's play as a receiver has declined this season, compiling a mere 4.7 adjusted receptions vs 6.0 last season.
  • Justin Jefferson's receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 68.4% to 65.3%.
  • The Ravens safeties rank as the 5th-best safety corps in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

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