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Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings

Justin Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-152/+132).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ +132.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.4 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.

Justin Jefferson has run a route on 98.4% of his team's dropbacks last year, placing him in the 100th percentile among WRs.

The leading projections forecast Justin Jefferson to accumulate 9.7 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 98th percentile among wide receivers.

With an exceptional 6.0 adjusted catches per game (95th percentile) last year, Justin Jefferson has been as one of the top wide receivers in the game in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 57.5% of their chances: the lowest rate on the slate this week.

Minnesota's passing stats last year may be artificially too high (and rushing stats decreased) due to playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We ought to be able to count on some correction with windier weather in this week's contest.

Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Chicago Bears, averaging the fewest attempts in football (just 30.6 per game) last year.

The Chicago Bears pass defense has yielded the 10th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (64.1%) vs. WRs last year (64.1%).

When it comes to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Chicago's unit has been very good last year, profiling as the 3rd-best in football.

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