Justin Jefferson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Justin Jefferson

NFL · Player Props

Justin Jefferson

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

Minnesota Vikings vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 9, 2024

Updated Nov 4, 2024 1:31 AM EST

Analysis

Justin Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+104/-136).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -129 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -136.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Vikings as the 8th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer.
In this week's game, Justin Jefferson is expected by the predictive model to slot into the 98th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 10.5 targets.
With a terrific 5.9 adjusted receptions per game (93rd percentile) this year, Justin Jefferson places as one of the best WRs in the NFL in the NFL.
The Colts pass defense has been torched for the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (70.6%) vs. wide receivers this year (70.6%).

Favors Under

A running game script is implied by the Vikings being a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest.
The Minnesota Vikings have called the fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 51.1 plays per game.
While Justin Jefferson has been responsible for 35.6% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a less important option in Minnesota's passing offense this week at 30.5%.
The Indianapolis Colts cornerbacks project as the 4th-best collection of CBs in the league this year in pass coverage.

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