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Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 8

Los Angeles Chargers vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 84.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 79.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 84.5 @ -114.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Vikings will be rolling out backup QB Carson Wentz in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
  • A passing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -3-point underdog in this week's game.
  • The predictive model expects the Vikings to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • Justin Jefferson has run a route on 98.6% of his team's dropbacks this year, putting him in the 100th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Minnesota Vikings are expected by the model to run just 63.1 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-lowest number on the slate this week.
  • Justin Jefferson's 74.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season conveys a significant diminishment in his pass-catching ability over last season's 89.0 figure.
  • Justin Jefferson's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 68.4% to 65.2%.
  • Justin Jefferson's skills in generating extra yardage have tailed off this season, averaging a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 4.73 mark last season.
  • The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has yielded the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (60.4%) to WRs this year (60.4%).

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