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Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 14

Minnesota Vikings vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 62.5 (-115/-115).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.
  • Justin Jefferson has run a route on 97.6% of his team's passing plays this year, ranking him in the 99th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • In this week's contest, Justin Jefferson is expected by the model to land in the 97th percentile when it comes to WRs with 10.0 targets.
  • The Washington Commanders defense has conceded the 5th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (162.0) to WRs this year.
  • The Commanders pass defense has displayed poor efficiency versus wideouts this year, conceding 9.63 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-most in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Vikings are expected by the projection model to run only 63.3 plays on offense in this game: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week.
  • The Vikings have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 51.4 plays per game.
  • After accruing 104.0 air yards per game last year, Justin Jefferson has posted significant losses this year, currently pacing 95.0 per game.
  • Justin Jefferson has totaled a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (60.0) this year than he did last year (89.0).
  • Justin Jefferson's 58.7% Adjusted Completion% this season conveys a remarkable decline in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 68.4% figure.

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