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Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 13

Seattle Seahawks vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 58.5 (-110/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 57.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 58.5 @ -110.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -11.5-point disadvantage, the Vikings are enormous underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a focus on throwing than their normal approach.
  • The projections expect the Minnesota Vikings as the 8th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.5% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (2-mph wind) being called for in this game, while rush volume may go down.
  • The Seahawks defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, inciting opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (40.4 per game) this year.
  • With an elite 97.4% Route% (99th percentile) this year, Justin Jefferson has been as one of the WRs with the biggest workloads in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Vikings are expected by the projection model to run just 63.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 7th-fewest among all teams this week.
  • The 3rd-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Vikings this year (only 52.1 per game on average).
  • Justin Jefferson has accumulated substantially fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (65.0) this year than he did last year (89.0).
  • Justin Jefferson's possession skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 68.4% to 60.3%.
  • Justin Jefferson's receiving effectiveness has tailed off this year, averaging a mere 7.91 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 10.12 mark last year.

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