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Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 11

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears

 
 
 
Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 70.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 65.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 70.5 @ -110.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 6th-most pass-focused offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 62.8% pass rate.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to see 131.9 offensive plays called: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • Justin Jefferson has run a route on 96.8% of his team's passing plays this year, placing him in the 99th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • In this game, Justin Jefferson is projected by our trusted projection set to finish in the 99th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 11.2 targets.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
  • The 9th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Minnesota Vikings this year (a measly 53.4 per game on average).
  • Justin Jefferson has notched significantly fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (68.0) this season than he did last season (89.0).
  • Justin Jefferson's ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 68.4% to 60.7%.
  • Justin Jefferson's pass-catching efficiency has diminished this season, compiling a mere 8.11 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 10.12 mark last season.

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