Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Justin Jefferson

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 1, 2025

Updated Sep 8, 2025 11:12 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 78.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 77.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 78.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.4 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
Justin Jefferson has run a route on 98.4% of his team's dropbacks last year, placing him in the 100th percentile among WRs.
The leading projections forecast Justin Jefferson to accumulate 9.7 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 98th percentile among wide receivers.
Justin Jefferson has totaled a colossal 107.0 air yards per game last year: 99th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
Justin Jefferson is positioned as one of the leading pass-catching WRs last year, averaging a terrific 89.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 99th percentile.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 57.5% of their chances: the lowest rate on the slate this week.
Minnesota's passing stats last year may be artificially too high (and rushing stats decreased) due to playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We ought to be able to count on some correction with windier weather in this week's contest.
Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Chicago Bears, averaging the fewest attempts in football (just 30.6 per game) last year.
The Bears defense has yielded the 6th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 125.0) versus wide receivers last year.
When it comes to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Chicago's unit has been very good last year, profiling as the 3rd-best in football.