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Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 5

Minnesota Vikings vs Kansas City Chiefs

Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 99.5 (-134/+102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 103.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 99.5 @ +102.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Vikings are a 3.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Vikings to pass on 67.9% of their downs: the highest rate among all teams this week.

The projections expect this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.2 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

In this contest, Justin Jefferson is predicted by the projection model to finish in the 100th percentile among wideouts with 12.7 targets.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Vikings have called the 7th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 54.5 plays per game.

The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has yielded the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (58%) versus wideouts this year (58.0%).

This year, the daunting Kansas City Chiefs defense has allowed the 4th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing WRs: a mere 6.7 yards.

When it comes to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Kansas City's unit has been very good this year, profiling as the 8th-best in the NFL.

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