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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 19

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers

 
 
 
Justin Herbert Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+500/-580).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -720 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -580.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • A passing game script is suggested by the Chargers being a -3.5-point underdog in this game.
  • Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 59.6% of their downs: the 2nd-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
  • At the present time, the 9th-most pass-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (59.0% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Los Angeles Chargers.
  • The 4th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Chargers this year (a staggering 60.2 per game on average).
  • With a remarkable ratio of 1.53 per game (82nd percentile), Justin Herbert has been as one of the leading touchdown throwers in football this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to have just 125.1 plays on offense called: the fewest among all games this week.
  • As it relates to pass-blocking (and the importance it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Los Angeles Chargers profiles as the worst in the NFL this year.

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