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Justin Herbert Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

Los Angeles Chargers vs Houston Texans

Justin Herbert Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+600/-750).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +650 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +600.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Chargers to be the 7th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.2% pass rate.

Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being projected in this game) generally lead to increased passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume.

With an excellent rate of 1.56 per game (86th percentile), Justin Herbert ranks as one of the best TD passers in the league this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Los Angeles Chargers offense to be the 2nd-most sluggish paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.47 seconds per snap.

As it relates to pass protection (and the significance it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Chargers profiles as the 3rd-worst in the league this year.

Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest level in the league versus the Houston Texans defense this year (63.9% Adjusted Completion%).

The Houston Texans defense has allowed the 4th-fewest passing touchdowns in the league: 1.13 per game this year.

The Houston cornerbacks profile as the best collection of CBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

More Justin Herbert Player Props

Justin Herbert TouchdownsPlayer Prop Week 17

Los Angeles Chargers vs Houston Texans

Justin Herbert Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17