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Justin Herbert Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 13

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders

Justin Herbert Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+390/-570).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -570 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -570.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the moment, the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense in the league (64.6% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Chargers.

The Chargers have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a massive 60.0 plays per game.

Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally mean better passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased air attack volume, and reduced run volume.

With an excellent rate of 1.73 per game (92nd percentile), Justin Herbert ranks as one of the leading touchdown passers in football this year.

When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Las Vegas's group of safeties has been atrocious this year, grading out as the worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's line indicates an extreme running game script for the Chargers, who are a heavy favorite by 9.5 points.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the projections to have only 122.9 plays on offense called: the fewest out of all the games this week.

The predictive model expects Justin Herbert to throw 32.3 passes this week, on average: the 10th-fewest out of all QBs.

The Los Angeles offensive line profiles as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful influence on all pass attack statistics across the board.

This year, the anemic Raiders run defense has yielded a whopping 1.27 touchdowns on the ground per game to opposing teams: the 4th-worst rate in the NFL.

More Justin Herbert Player Props

Justin Herbert TouchdownsPlayer Prop Week 13

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders

Justin Herbert Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 13