My Account Log Out
 
 
Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Los Angeles Chargers

 
 
 
Justin Herbert Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+540/-680).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 65.0% pass rate.
  • The largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers this year (a whopping 61.6 per game on average).
  • The Jaguars defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, enticing opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in the league (39.8 per game) this year.
  • With an excellent ratio of 1.90 per game (92nd percentile), Justin Herbert ranks as one of the top touchdown throwers in the league this year.
  • This year, the poor Jaguars defense has yielded a monstrous 2.33 passing touchdowns per game to opposing offenses: the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 3-point advantage, the Chargers are favored in this game, suggesting more of a focus on running than their typical game plan.
  • Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Chargers are anticipated by the model to call just 63.0 plays on offense in this contest: the 6th-fewest on the slate this week.
  • The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
  • The Chargers O-line grades out as the 6th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
  • Opposing teams have completed passes at the 6th-lowest rate in football versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year (66.8% Adjusted Completion%).

  •  
     
     
     
     
    © 2025 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™