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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert TD Passes
Player Prop Week 9

Tennessee Titans vs Los Angeles Chargers

 
 
 
Justin Herbert TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-207/+160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -191 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -207.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • With a 60.9% rate of passing the ball in the red zone (adjusted for context) this year, the 7th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL under these circumstances has been the Los Angeles Chargers.
  • The Chargers have run the 2nd-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 61.2 plays per game.
  • Justin Herbert has been one of the leading touchdown throwers in football this year, averaging an impressive 2.00 per game while ranking in the 95th percentile.
  • This year, the deficient Titans defense has given up a whopping 77.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 3rd-biggest rate in football.
  • The Tennessee Titans cornerbacks project as the 7th-worst unit in football this year in defending receivers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • An extreme rushing game script is implied by the Chargers being an enormous 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest.
  • The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 8th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 56.2% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to have only 126.4 plays on offense run: the 5th-fewest among all games this week.
  • In this week's game, Justin Herbert is expected by the predictive model to have the 9th-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 33.4.
  • Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Tennessee Titans, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 30.8 per game) this year.

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