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Justin Herbert TD Passes
Player Prop Week 8

Los Angeles Chargers vs Minnesota Vikings

Justin Herbert TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-200/+150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -150 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -200.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 61.8% of their opportunities: the 4th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.

The Chargers have been the 6th-most pass-centric team in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year with a 62.4% red zone pass rate.

The 6th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Chargers this year (a monstrous 60.7 per game on average).

The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (0-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may fall-off.

Our trusted projections expect Justin Herbert to throw 36.6 passes in this game, on balance: the 6th-most among all quarterbacks.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's spread indicates a running game script for the Chargers, who are favored by 3 points.

The predictive model expects this game to have the 4th-fewest plays run among all games this week at 126.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to test the pass defense of the Minnesota Vikings, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 27.7 per game) this year.

As it relates to protecting the passer (and the impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Chargers grades out as the 9th-worst in football this year.

The Vikings safeties grade out as the 2nd-best safety corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

More Justin Herbert Player Props

Justin Herbert TD PassesPlayer Prop Week 8

Los Angeles Chargers vs Minnesota Vikings

Justin Herbert TD Passes
Player Prop Week 8