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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert TD Passes
Player Prop Week 6

Miami Dolphins vs Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-121/+111).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -128 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -121.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 6th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 60.0% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 59.0 plays per game.

In racking up a staggering 30.9 pass attempts per game this year, Justin Herbert ranks among the top QBs in football (90th percentile) in this regard.

Justin Herbert has been among the leading TD passers in football this year, averaging an excellent 1.33 per game while ranking in the 76th percentile.

Opposing teams have completed passes at the 3rd-highest rate in football vs. the Dolphins defense this year (79.1% Adjusted Completion%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A rushing game script is indicated by the Chargers being a 3.5-point favorite in this game.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the predictive model to see only 123.8 total plays called: the lowest number out of all the games this week.

Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Dolphins, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 28.8 per game) this year.

The Chargers offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack stats across the board.

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