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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert TD Passes
Player Prop Week 3

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos

 
 
 
Justin Herbert TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-110/-101).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -102 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -110.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Chargers to pass on 59.0% of their opportunities: the 10th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being forecasted in this game) typically prompt better passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and reduced ground volume.
  • The Denver Broncos defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (36.5 per game) since the start of last season.
  • Justin Herbert's 71.2% Adjusted Completion% this year indicates an impressive progression in his throwing precision over last year's 64.6% rate.
  • When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Denver's unit has been atrocious since the start of last season, grading out as the 6th-worst in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Right now, the 8th-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the goal line (53.3% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Los Angeles Chargers.
  • Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Chargers are anticipated by the model to call just 63.4 offensive plays in this contest: the 11th-lowest number on the slate this week.
  • The 3rd-smallest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers since the start of last season (a lowly 55.3 per game on average).
  • The Broncos defense has given up the 3rd-fewest passing TDs in football: 1.21 per game since the start of last season.

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