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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert TD Passes
Player Prop Week 19

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers

 
 
 
Justin Herbert TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-103/-124).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -103.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • A passing game script is suggested by the Chargers being a -3.5-point underdog in this game.
  • Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 59.6% of their downs: the 2nd-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
  • At the present time, the 9th-most pass-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (59.0% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Los Angeles Chargers.
  • The 4th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Chargers this year (a staggering 60.2 per game on average).
  • In registering a staggering 31.3 pass attempts per game this year, Justin Herbert rates among the top quarterbacks in football (80th percentile) for this stat.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Chargers to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
  • As it relates to pass-blocking (and the importance it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Los Angeles Chargers profiles as the worst in the NFL this year.
  • The Patriots linebackers profile as the 4th-best collection of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

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