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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert TD Passes
Player Prop Week 16

Dallas Cowboys vs Los Angeles Chargers

 
 
 
Justin Herbert TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-167/+135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -167.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 60.1% of their opportunities: the 8th-highest frequency on the slate this week.
  • With a 59.6% rate of passing the ball near the goal line (in a neutral context) this year, the 7th-most pass-focused team in football in this setting has been the Chargers.
  • The Chargers have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 60.5 plays per game.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • Justin Herbert has attempted 31.3 passes per game this year, ranking in the 82nd percentile among QBs.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Given the game dynamics and traits of each team, the predictive model expects this game (with an average of 26.63 seconds per play) will have the 11th-slowest tempo on the slate this week.
  • As it relates to protecting the passer (and the significance it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Los Angeles Chargers grades out as the 4th-worst in football this year.

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