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Justin Herbert TD Passes
Player Prop Week 15

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+155/-210).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -200 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -210.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A throwing game script is suggested by the Chargers being a -5.5-point underdog in this week's contest.

The projections expect the Chargers to be the 8th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 59.9% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The Chargers rank as the 10th-most pass-centric team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 59.4% red zone pass rate.

The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 60.6 plays per game.

The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and lower rush volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Chargers are predicted by the model to call just 63.0 total plays in this game: the 7th-fewest on the slate this week.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been reluctant to test the pass defense of the Chiefs, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 31.5 per game) this year.

The Los Angeles O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

This year, the stout Kansas City Chiefs defense has allowed a mere 1.08 passing TDs per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 5th-lowest rate in football.

As it relates to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Kansas City's collection of CBs has been one of the most skilled this year, projecting as the best in the NFL.

More Justin Herbert Player Props

Justin Herbert TD PassesPlayer Prop Week 15

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert TD Passes
Player Prop Week 15