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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert TD Passes
Player Prop Week 10

Los Angeles Chargers vs Pittsburgh Steelers

 
 
 
Justin Herbert TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-150/+140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -156 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -150.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chargers to pass on 61.3% of their downs: the 5th-highest clip on the slate this week.
  • The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 58.7% red zone pass rate.
  • The 2nd-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers this year (a massive 61.1 per game on average).
  • The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and reduced run volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • The projections expect Justin Herbert to attempt 35.1 passes in this contest, on average: the 9th-most among all quarterbacks.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 3-point advantage, the Chargers are favored in this game, implying more of a reliance on rushing than their normal game plan.
  • The projections expect the Chargers to run the 5th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.4 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
  • In regards to pocket protection (and the influence it has on all passing offense stats), the offensive line of the Chargers ranks as the 4th-worst in the league this year.
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers rank as the best unit in the NFL this year when it comes to pass rush.

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