Justin Herbert TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

TD Passes

Carolina Panthers vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 2, 2024

Updated Sep 15, 2024 7:22 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Herbert TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+126/-165).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 9th-highest number of plays in the league have been called by the Chargers since the start of last season (a monstrous 59.9 per game on average).
The Carolina Panthers safeties grade out as the 3rd-worst group of safeties in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

This game's spread suggests a running game script for the Chargers, who are favored by 5 points.
The predictive model expects the Chargers as the 5th-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 52.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Right now, the 4th-least pass-heavy offense in football near the goal line (50.6% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Chargers.
The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.

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