Justin Herbert TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

TD Passes

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 3:31 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Herbert TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-115/-111).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +106 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 60.5% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week.
Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically mean better passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air attack volume, and lower ground volume.
This week, Justin Herbert is projected by the predictive model to total the 6th-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 36.3.
Justin Herbert has been among the best touchdown throwers in the NFL this year, averaging an excellent 1.67 per game while grading out in the 79th percentile.
This year, the poor Broncos defense has allowed a massive 73.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 6th-biggest rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Chargers have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
With a 3-point advantage, the Chargers are favored this week, implying more of a focus on running than their standard game plan.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to see just 126.6 offensive plays called: the 3rd-lowest number out of all the games this week.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to pass too much against the Broncos, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in football (just 34.6 per game) this year.

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