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Justin Herbert
NFL · Player Props
Justin Herbert
QB · Los Angeles Chargers
TD Passes
Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos · Week 14, 2023 Updated Dec 11, 2023 3:31 AM UTC
NFL Props Justin Herbert TD Passes

Justin Herbert TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-115/-111).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +106 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -115.

Favors Over
  • Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 60.5% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically mean better passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air attack volume, and lower ground volume.
  • This week, Justin Herbert is projected by the predictive model to total the 6th-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 36.3.
  • Justin Herbert has been among the best touchdown throwers in the NFL this year, averaging an excellent 1.67 per game while grading out in the 79th percentile.
  • This year, the poor Broncos defense has allowed a massive 73.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 6th-biggest rate in the NFL.
Favors Under
  • The Chargers have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
  • With a 3-point advantage, the Chargers are favored this week, implying more of a focus on running than their standard game plan.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to see just 126.6 offensive plays called: the 3rd-lowest number out of all the games this week.
  • Opposing teams teams have been wary to pass too much against the Broncos, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in football (just 34.6 per game) this year.
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