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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 19

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers

 
 
 
Justin Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-116/-108).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 29.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 28.5 @ -108.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The 4th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Chargers this year (a staggering 60.2 per game on average).
  • Justin Herbert has averaged 4.3 rush attempts per game this year, one of the largest rates in the league among quarterbacks (88th percentile).
  • Justin Herbert has been much more involved in his team's rushing attack this year (17.5% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (11.4%).
  • Justin Herbert has run for a lot more yards per game (28.0) this season than he did last season (19.0).
  • Justin Herbert's ground efficiency (6.62 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (93rd percentile when it comes to QBs).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A passing game script is suggested by the Chargers being a -3.5-point underdog in this game.
  • Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chargers to run on 40.4% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to have just 125.1 plays on offense called: the fewest among all games this week.
  • This year, the formidable New England Patriots run defense has given up a mere 97.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing offenses: the 5th-best in football.
  • As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, New England's collection of safeties has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the best in the league.

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