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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 17

Los Angeles Chargers vs Houston Texans

 
 
 
Justin Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 24.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 26.5 @ -130.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • In this game, Justin Herbert is projected by the model to garner the 7th-most rush attempts among all quarterbacks with 5.2.
  • After taking on 11.4% of his offense's rush attempts last year, Justin Herbert has been called on more in the rushing attack this year, currently taking on 16.9%.
  • Justin Herbert has rushed for quite a few more yards per game (28.0) this season than he did last season (19.0).
  • Justin Herbert's running effectiveness (6.77 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (89th percentile when it comes to quarterbacks).
  • Justin Herbert checks in as one of the leading quarterbacks in football at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging an impressive 2.18 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 78th percentile.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Los Angeles Chargers to run on 41.8% of their downs: the 10th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
  • The model projects the Los Angeles Chargers offense to be the 2nd-most sluggish paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.47 seconds per snap.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being projected in this game) generally lead to increased passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume.
  • This year, the formidable Houston Texans run defense has surrendered a measly 91.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to the opposing side: the 3rd-fewest in the league.
  • The Texans safeties project as the 7th-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

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