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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 15

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers

 
 
 
Justin Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-114/-117).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 24.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ -117.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 60.6 plays per game.
  • The leading projections forecast Justin Herbert to accumulate 5.6 carries this week, on average: the 6th-most out of all quarterbacks.
  • After making up 11.4% of his offense's carries last year, Justin Herbert has been more involved in the rushing attack this year, now accounting for 17.6%.
  • Justin Herbert's 32.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year represents a material growth in his running proficiency over last year's 19.0 figure.
  • Justin Herbert's ground efficiency (6.95 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (93rd percentile among quarterbacks).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A throwing game script is suggested by the Chargers being a -5.5-point underdog in this week's contest.
  • The leading projections forecast the Chargers as the 8th-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 40.1% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Chargers are predicted by the model to call just 63.0 total plays in this game: the 7th-fewest on the slate this week.
  • The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and lower rush volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • This year, the strong Chiefs run defense has yielded a meager 99.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the 7th-best in the NFL.

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