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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 1

Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs

Justin Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-115/-109).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Los Angeles's passing stats last year may be artificially propped up a bit (and running stats decreased) in light of playing the 9th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We ought to be able to count on some correction with windier conditions this week.

The model projects Justin Herbert to be a more important option in his team's ground game in this game (19.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been last year (11.0% in games he has played).

With a stellar rate of 6.9 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) (80th percentile), Justin Herbert places among the leading rushing QBs in football last year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A passing game script is suggested by the Chargers being a -3-point underdog in this game.

The projections expect the Chargers as the 7th-least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 40.1% run rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The predictive model expects the Chargers to run the 7th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The 4th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers last year (only 55.5 per game on average).

The Chiefs defense boasts the 5th-best efficiency against opposing running games last year, giving up just 4.11 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).

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