Justin Herbert Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 7, 2024

Updated Oct 22, 2024 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Justin Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chargers to run on 45.1% of their plays: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week.
This year, the shaky Cardinals run defense has been torched for a massive 155.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing squads: the most in football.

Favors Under

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the projection model to see just 124.0 total plays run: the lowest number out of all the games this week.
The Chargers have called the 5th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling just 54.4 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
This week, Justin Herbert is expected by the predictive model to notch the fewest rush attempts among all QBs with 2.8.
Justin Herbert has been much less involved in his team's run game this season (6.6% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (14.1%).

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